Expert: Dollar may cost up to 5 thousands by autumn 2011
The dollar cost may reach 3200 rubles at the end of the year. Our economy will not be able to provide the exchange rate of 3170 planned by the government for the next year on its own, thinks the economist.
The Belarusian government has included the exchange rate of the dollar as 3170 at the beginning of the year and 3206 – at the end in its budget statement for 2011. The euro and the Russian ruble will not get more expensive. The government’s forecast is 4059 for the euro and 107.4 for the Russian ruble.
ERB has asked specialists whether the government will be able to maintain the planned exchange rates. What will the rates be like by the end of this year?
Economist Leanid Zlotnikau thinks it will be possible to stick to the planned rate only if the government manages to get the necessary amount of currency:
"…from different sources – loans, selling state property, direct foreign investments… In any case, if they manage to establish a currency influx here, it will be possible to keep the exchange rate".
However, according to the economist, it will hardly be possible to provide such a currency influx. And the dollar may cost 5 thousand rubles without it next autumn:
"However, I do not think it will be possible to provide such an influx neither by the end of this year, nor at the beginning of the next year. So, there is nothing that could help us maintain the rate planned by the National Bank.
In my opinion, the exchange rate may reach 3200 by the end of this year. It is difficult to predict what will happen later. However, our economy is unable to maintain such an exchange rate on its own. It may be 4 or 5 thousands for one dollar and it may happen by next autumn if we do not manage to change the situation with the help of huge foreign loans".
Let us note that according to the information received at the beginning of October, the dollar cost has increased more that the cost of other currencies this year – by 5%, on the contrary, euro has lost a quarter percent while the Russian ruble has increased by 4.22%.
The tunnel of the Belarusian ruble if compared to the currency basket (dollar, euro, Rusisan ruble) was established as plus or minus 10%. However, according to the forecast of the National Bank, the ruble will finish the year with a better result. The Belarusian National Bank is planning a tunnel of the ruble rate compared to the currency basket as plus or minus 8%, said the head of the Information Department of the National Bank Anatol Drazdou in an interview with ERB.
Anatol Drazdou: "We do not denote the exact cost of the currency but only a tunnel in which the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble will be changing in comparison with the currency basket of three currencies. It is known that the tunnel was plus or minus 10% this year. In practice, the deviations will be much lower. We will have a narrower tunnel next year – plus or minus 8%. Naturally, we expect that the deviations will be smaller".
Anatol Drazdou also noted that the cost of 3170 rubles for one dollar had been approved by the National Bank:
"All decisions about economic development projects for the next year are taken after they get approved by the institutions. Naturally, if the Ministry of Finance has pegged the number, it has discussed it with us. But the number is needed for the budget rather than for the National Bank. We have already gone through the experience of anchoring the Belarusian ruble to one currency".
Economist Leanid Zlotnikau says that such deviations of the dollar rate (plus or minus 8%) are only a thing the National Bank wishes to happen:
"This is a wish in the current situation. On the other hand, I think the National Bank cannot say anything else because you should only plan and speak only about good things now as the elections are approaching…"