The economist: Even by means of devaluation it is difficult to stabilize the market
23 августа 2011, 16:31
Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich promised in the "20s of August" to make an important decision on currency issue. It means this event can happen at any moment...
Euroradio talked about it with the economist Dmitry Kryuk.
-How likely that they will make a decision on the next devaluation of the Belarusian ruble?
- I think it is quite likely, because today the gap between the official exchange rate and the rate of "black" market has reached quite substantial size. And in this situation the authorities must to respond somehow. And most likely they will choose those scheme, which they applied in May - the official devaluation, but slightly less than the market rate of the ruble.
-Will the devaluation help to stabilize the market?
- If it goes in such a scenario, which I mentioned earlier, then, most likely, no. In order to stabilize the market the solution could be to abolish all limitations on the market, but I have some doubt that the authorities are ready for such a decision today.
-What can the authorities do today to replenish gold and foreign currency reserves?
- Most likely, it is just the same privatization, because in the current state of the economy there is no reason to talk about how to accumulate the reserves at the expense of some other instruments. In the short term, privatization is the only non-alternative means to replenish gold and foreign currency reserves. And if the authorities stake on the fixed rate, they will need large reserves, and in this situation privatization becomes inevitable.