The expert: the authorities make wild decisions which will destroy national monetary system
25 августа 2011, 19:39
To save the exchange rate at the level of 5000 rubles per dollar is the unreal task. This opinion told to a correspondent of the news portal UDF.BY the ex-chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, Professor Stanislav Bahdankevich.
- Today at the meeting, Alexander Lukashenko said that the situation in the foreign exchange market will be stabilized in 1.5-2 months. Did the authorities lack seven months to align the situation?
- This question must be given not to me but Lukashenko. I think the authorities have "a fifth column", which works out to destroy the national monetary system, to shake completely a faith to the national currency. That's why they do those steps, which do not even stabilize the exchange rate, but vice versa - they introduce the foreign cash, harming to the population. After all, people do not have other instruments for the conservation and accumulation of savings, except to convert them into hard currency. Today, the authorities make wild decisions aimed at the abolition of national monetary circulation, at disrespect to national currency. So, I think, either all this creates the "fifth column", which occupied high offices, or this is complete ignorance.
- The head of the state gave a task to the government and National Bank to fix the single rate at 5000 rubles. Is it real to do it?
- Today, 5000 rubles for dollar is not real, it is some kind of fictional rate. If it was announced in February-March - it would be real. The authorities' inaction led to the complete disorganization of the monetary-currency system. They drove to it and continue to do nothing to remedy the situation. If they announced a comprehensive and systematic program and explain to people and business that such amount of foreign cash will come from credits, privatization, export, that they will take such and such steps to reduce the government expenses, then a long time ago there would be stabilization on the level of 4-5 thousand rubles for dollar. But today this is unreal to maintain such a rate.
- Do you think the dollar will rise?
- Today we must continue to raise this rate, but it should be raised up in stock exchange, but not in the backroom silence, looking at a ceiling. And of course, it would be desirable to conduct an exchange trading, and at the same time to have foreign currency resources in case it is needed to intervene the National Bank to support the exchange rate at 6-7, may be at 8 thousand rubles. But it is necessary that the market would show a more or less real rate, and then, please, achieve the drop in rate to 5000. The population will only thank for it. But what they are doing now, raises many questions: maybe they want to ruin the national monetary system? Maybe they think to switch over the foreign currency? Maybe they think to nationalize the foreign currency savings of citizens? .. You can construct different guesses, based on that very unprofessional policy pursued by the government.
- But the National Bank said today that there is no need to further reduce the rate of Belarusian ruble...
- The Statement of the National Bank is remarkable. Who would argue against it? Let they do not say, but do. I am convinced that today it can not be done. Too much blank money they have printed after January 1. They made a huge credit expansion in addition to how it was in 2010. Their statements are correct, but the deeds are kind of ignorant.