The U.S. Analytical Center Stratfor believes that the International Monetary Fund most likely will not give eight billion dollars, asked by the official Minsk in June. This situation, according to Stratfor, gives a strong trump card in the hands of Russia.
"Now the loan looks even less likely after a scandal involving Poland and Lithuania’s releasing of information on opposition figures to the Belarusian government. Minsk used that information in order to target those opposition figures and groups", write the american analysts.
According to Stratfor sources, "the scandals were fiercely debated at the EU Foreign Affairs Council on Aug. 9, when both Poland and Lithuania were chastised for their actions and called upon to protect the pro-Western Belarusian opposition. At the same meeting, the council brought up the issue of whether Belarus deserved the IMF loan, as the previous loans clearly did nothing to influence Minsk".
Stratfor analysts conclude: "With the loan looking less likely than ever, Russia’s plans to take over the bulk of the Belarusian economy look all but assured, as Belarus has nowhere else to turn to ease its financial difficulties".