At present the mean exchange rate is in the range of 9000-9500 rubles per dollar. This opinion expressed to Infobank Valery Polhovsky, the senior analyst of FOREX CLUB in Belarus.
He believes that a major factor of its recent growth is the weak monetary policy by regulators of the money market and some decrease in supply due to the announced changes in FX market.
"Now, many are scratching their heads on what will be the rate at the first free trade session, but in our opinion, this is absolutely useless", said V. Polhovsky. "First of all, because the rate is now detached from economic realities and is influenced by the emotions of participants and a printing press". And it is also hard to say which are these realities. For example, the exporters and importers have completely opposite opinions on this issue".
It is much more interesting to identify the signs which indicate the stabilization of FX market, thinks the analyst. In order to assume that a rate came to an adequate economical level, it is needed to make sure that:
FX currency is enough in ill the market segments (cash and non-cash);
the spreads (the difference between buying and selling) are insignificant;
almost all banks buy and sell currency at approximately the same rate;
there is a possibility to freely convert all deposits from one currency to another;
banks removed the limits on a credit card usage abroad.
When all these factors have appeared, one can safely say that FX market is stabilized, said V. Polhovsky.
However, in his opinion, this does not mean that the economic situation is much improved. By itself, the tightening of monetary and credit policy, if it really happens, will become a shock to many state-owned enterprises. They used to work under the conditions of concessional financing, not worrying about the return of funds received. Quite possible, the authorities will start the forced recovery of corporate sector. And it may painfully affect the level of employment and social situation in the country.
"In general, the restart of FX market won't solve the economical problems", the analyst concluded. "They will just begin. The appearance of the currency in the market only means that it, as a commodity, is now trading at a fair market price, but how much of this commodity we will be able to buy and consume - that's for separate discussion".