Alyaksandr Lukashenka said on Tuesday that he expects the dollar's decline after starting a single trading session at the stock exchange.
How far such assurances are grounded? What may influence on the temporary effect of the dollar drop? The economist Leonid Zlotnikov answers these questions.
- Not only Alyaksandr Lukashenka, but also analysts talk about the possible drop of foreign currencies against the Belarusian ruble after unified trading at the stock exchange. Another question is how much will the ruble rise and how long will continue this process?
- In fact it will happen, the ruble will strengthen. The part of currency, which was sold at the official rate of 5700, will be sold at market rate. Now those who used to buy currency at this "official" price, will have to buy currency at the market price. Those who "hold back" the dollar, didn't want to sell it for 5000, will throw their currency to the market. Market exchange rate, I think, will be set somewhere in-between the official and market one. It may be somewhere around 7-8 thousand per dollar. But later gradually the rise of the dollar will begin.
- How long favorable circumstances for the Belarusian ruble growth will remain?
- The average rate will be set within a week. Currency reserves are low, and the selling of those who "held back" their currency will support the Belarusian ruble for a few weeks.
And then along with inflation the ruble will fall. Strategically, the dollar rate will depend on two factors - on the level of inflation and on foreign currency inflows into the country. If there are no loans, if before the new year will be no currency receipts from privatization and foreign direct investments, then the dollar will rise even faster than inflation.