According to latest estimations of the head of the National Bank, the growth of Belarus’ gross domestic product will make up 11-12% in 2010, although recently it was stated that the GDP would rise by 2-3% only. The head of the Science and Research Centre Mizes Jaraslau Ramanchuk reviews Piotr Prakapovich’s optimistic statements.
The independent economist calls the statements of the head of the National Bank "surrealism in economy".
"Piotr Prakapovich said that a budget should be calculated based on GDP growth of 2-3%, while a real economy should work under growth rates of 11-12%. Not a single economist in the world would be able to explain this. If enterprises "grow" by 11-12% then the budget will change as well according to current rates", said Jaraslau Ramanchuk. He noted that just two weeks ago the chairman of the National Bank announced a great increase in problem debts of the banking system of Belarus and the necessity to stop crediting "bad" enterprises.
The dressing-down Aliaksandr Lukashenka gave the government last Friday indicates, according to Jaraslau Ramanchuk, that the head of state shares the opinion of independent experts about the state of Belarusian economy.
"Virtually none of the expected rates is reached; there is really a crisis. Problems with the liquidity of the banking system, budget deficit, rising prises, devaluation of the Belarusian rouble and financing of debts in 2010 are expected. All this will not let the economy grow even by 1%," said the head of the Mizes centre.
At the same time the expert mentioned that although the president saw the obvious causes of the economic problems he could not take a decision about a strategic plan for changing the current situation because to change the policy in a pre-election year is to doom oneself to risks and uncertainty.