Experts Predict Br9-10 Thousand per Dollar by 2012
Minsk welcomed a press conference at which senior analyst at Forex Club of Belarus Valeri Polkhovski shared his views over the state of the Belarusian ruble in 2012. According to Forex experts, provided for 19-22% inflation in Belarus next year, the dollar rate can be expected to freeze at the level of Br9-10 thousand.
"We expect the GDP growth to be 0-2% in 2012, while the inflation - 20%, provided for no stimulation of gross indicators. Is the plans on the inflation are implemented, the rate will reach the level of Br9-10 thousand," said the representative of Forex, BelaPAN.
Experts advise the government to curb inflation
As stressed by Valeri Polkhovski, now the Belarusian government must expend all the efforts in the economy to get inflation back to the manageable channel and to stabilize the overall macroeconomic environment.
"It makes sense to stop targeting the GDP indicators. As the GDP increase in itself does not lead automatically to the improved quality of life and the national economy as a whole," said Polhovski.
Inflation washes out the effect of devaluation
Forex representative also recommended the National Bank to adjust the exchange rate to inflation. Otherwise, it will completely wash out the effect of the devaluation, given the 10% monthly inflation rise.
"That's why the National Bank must adjust the real exchange rate to inflation, if we aim to achieve higher economic growth. Otherwise, foreign trade will start braking," said Valeri Polhovski.
Compared with the statements of the Ministry of Economy, Forex forecasts look very bright. The Belarusian Ministry of Economy expects Br22 thousand per dollar in 2012. According to Deputy Minister of Economy Alexander Yaroshenko, this will happen if high levels of emission credits to the economy remain next year.
Belarusian economist Sergei Balykin is convinced that the long-term decline of the ruble will continue. According to him, if the authorities offset the population’s costs from rising prices of goods and services by emissions, Belarus may expect another round of inflation, rising prices and depreciation of the national currency.
However, the ruble has been showing a tendency to strengthening for more than 10 days. Dollar fell by Br20 against the Belarusian ruble at the end of the trading day on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on December 5. Thus, the dollar fx rate for December 6 is Br8.560.
At the same time, Belarus is still ranking first in the world in terms of the official dollar fx rate growth against the national currency in January-November 2011.
The data have been confirmed by the analysis of the fx rates of December 31, 2010 and November 20, 2011, carried out by Telegraf correspondents. Thus, the dollar rose by 186.67% from Br3 thousand to Br8.6 thousand for the period in Belarus.