According to the forecasts of the National Bank of Belarus in 2012, the average dollar exchange rate is going to be about Br9.150.
As stated by chairman of the National Bank Nadezhda Ermakova on December 7, it is "the most pessimistic forecast." This year's dollar rate, according to the National Bank calculations, should reach Br8.600, as no significant fx rate fluctuations are expected in December.
According to Nadezhda Ermakova, it's difficult to give accurate predictions of the national currency rate today. However, based on the economic outlook of the Belarusian economy, the National Bank hopes for greater appreciation of the ruble against the foreign currencies, BelTA informs.
Nadezhda Ermakova also says that recapitalization of state banks is planned by the end of 2011. According to her, the decision on the exact amount of recapitalization will be taken by the National Bank in the coming days. Meanwhile the calculation of the necessary funds is carried out.
According to the plans of the National Bank, the recapitalization will be held at the expense of securities of the Ministry of Finance, not by direct infusion of funds.
Nadezhda Ermakova called the issue of new Br200 thousand banknotes among other plans of the National Bank. This event is scheduled for I quarter of 2012, as the banknote is currently under development. At the same time Nadezhda Ermakova didn't comment on other details, wishing to keep them a secret.
National Bank will review the refinancing rate in January
Nadezhda Ermakova says the National Bank has no plans to raise the refinancing rate by the end of this year. However, its review is scheduled for January 2012.
"I think, we'll review the rate in the second half of January 2012, based on the situation with inflation. I hope the decision will be made towards lowering the refinancing rate," explained Nadezhda Ermakova.
The next increase in refinancing rate is scheduled for December 12. It's going to be raised from 40% to 45%.
According to earlier predictions of the National Bank, the refinancing rate will reach 30-35% per annum in 2012. The National Bank expects year-end rate of 20-23%, while inflation should make no more than 19-22%.