Expert: Only Psychiatrists can Predict Economy of Belarus
The head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaika is convinced that it does not make sense to predict the economic situation in Belarus in 2012 amidst uncertainty dictated by the authorities.
"Psychiatrists rather than economists can give projections for the Belarusian economy either in 2011, or in 2012," said the expert.
Thus, the economist considers it wrong to make predictions on inflation. According to him, one has better clearly identify the status of the monetary base, which, he said, will grow in proportion to the volume of Belarusian exports. This was stated by Leonid Zaika at a press conference on the year’s results on December 29.
GDP growth, according to Leonid Zaika, the GDP zero growth or its slight decline (5-7%) is a good and realistic projection for next year.
Leonid Zaika considers it possible to predict other indicators of economic growth, such as the size of the average salary, the dollar rate, only at the level of recommendations.
Belarusian economist Sergei Chaly believes that the government plan of economic development for the following year is, in fact, a cross between a hedgehog and a snake. "The whole financial unit is absolutely correct. But all that relates to the real sector - unrealistic nonsense," said the expert.
Sergei Chaly believes that the year 2012 will see the struggle between economic reality and the rhetoric of the authorities.
"Politically, it is very difficult to admit that we have built up nothing", said the economist. "Miyasnikovich-Rumas market economy" will win in this fight."
It’s hard for the authorities to abandon the rhetoric in economic matters because Belarus is seeking "to maintain a socially oriented market economy at least outwardly," says the economist. In this case, according to Sergei Chaly, there’s no need to speak about the social orientation of the Belarusian economy today.
As an example, an economist reminded the situation in housing construction. If, according to the government plans, 7 million square meters of housing are to be built this year, the next year’s plan reduced the figure to 4 million, of which only 40% will be built with the state support - two times less than this year.
"I believe that 2011 is a sort of watershed. It’s become clear that this won’t work, that one can’t reinvent the wheel, that "the unique economic model of Belarus" is not unique at all. This is a normal Latin American version, resulting in a normal Latin American collapse, which requires normal liberal prescriptions for economic stabilization. That’s it. And we are approaching it," he said.
"The situation reminds a man who thinks he can fly. He may feed this illusion until he hits the ground. The same can be said about our Belarusian economic model. We’d been thinking it could fly, until it broke of brutal economic reality," said the expert.