Belarusian economy is becoming noncompetitive again
Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Sergei Dubkov believes, the competitiveness of the Belarusian economy will again be under threat after a soon loss of the devaluation benefits.
"At present, the foreign economic activity indicators have improved. However, in the first place it happened due to the increasing price competitiveness of Belarusian products because of the almost three-fold devaluation of Belarusian ruble", S.Dubkov said, while speaking on Thursday in Minsk at the II International Forum "The capital market of the Republic of Belarus. Challenges and Opportunities".
"But after a certain time, the obtained advantage will disappear. And then, without additional measures the competitiveness of our economy, with its parameters of the energy-output ratio and the import capacity may be at risk once again", Interfax-Zapad quotes the deputy head of the NBB.
S.Dubkov also noted, the total scores of foreign trade in 2011 (deficit reduction by 71% to $2.2 billion) do not consider the transfer amounts of the customs duties on petroleum products and foreign debt of enterprises to the budget of the Russian Federation.
"If you analyze the volumes of the customs duties on petroleum products transferred to Russia, and laso changes in receivables and payables of enterprises, an improvement in the work results occurred in foreign markets is not so significant", he said.
At the same time the deputy head of the NBB emphasized: "It is important not just to establish the single exchange rate. It is important to ensure that it is relatively stable in the long run, and not at the expense of spending foreign reserves of the state. For this to happen, the whole economy should bring to the country more foreign currency than it spends".
S.Dubkov once again emphasized the need to keep in 2012 the tight monetary and fiscal policy as a key thing for maintaining macroeconomic balance. In particular - to reduce inflation to a projected 19-22%. In this regard, he confirmed the NBB's intention to adhere to the mode of the exchange rate's "managed floating", which does not suggest benchmarking in its value.
"The stability of the exchange rate will be maintained not by direct interventions of the National Bank, but through measures of the emission and interest rate policy. Maintaining the internal stability of the national currency will create fundamental preconditions for its external stability - the stability of exchange rate", the deputy head of the NBB thinks.
"It should be clear, there is no way to return to the dimensionless financial support from the state. Priorities, which had to be solved for the survival of the economy, have been solved. Then they need to rely primarily on their own strength", he added.
As UDF.BY wrote earlier, during the Wednesday visit of "Baranovichhleboprodukt" and communicating with employees of the enterprise the head of presidential administration Vladimir Makey pledged that the Belarusian ruble devaluation and price hikes won't happen anymore.
"The state is trying to support people, but it does not mean that for paying salaries the money obtained from the emission will be assigned. We have already learned a bitter lesson", Vladimir Makey said. "Among other reasons, the emission money, also was the reason why the ruble devaluation and price hikes have happened. This won't be anymore".
It means the government will have to raise the competitiveness of the Belarusian economy by employing other incentive mechanisms. However, the Belarusian leadership hasn't presented a clear plan of actions which would ensure in 2012 the cherished GDP growth of 5.5% and the reduction of inflation to 19-22%.
While the authorities contemplate, Belarusians are massively leaving to work in Russia. According to unofficial reports, over the past year more than 1 million workers have left the country. If the situation does not change, then there will be no one to build the "Belarusian Miracle".