Expert: It's very easy "to fall" into inflation once again
14 марта 2012, 18:41
Commercial banks offer deposits to Belarusians at 50% and even higher, which caused a serious influx of funds from the population.
Economist Leonid Zlotnikov warns: at any moment the situation can become quite the opposite. The outflow of money from banks and massive buying up of foreign currency can lead to another crisis.
"In this situation where the country finds itself, it is very easy "to fall" into inflation, and then it will be about the same as the last year", the expert said in an interview to "Belsat TV"
"Population and speculators have been actively investing in deposits, banks have now free money which are nowhere to invest", Zlotnikov said. "In Belarus there are no effective projects to invest the money and not go bankrupt, so now the banks do not know what to do with the money".
According to the economist, the National Bank was trying to attract these funds, but as a result the economy was "pumped up" with money even more.
To solve this problem, the country's main bank reduces the refinancing rate, which in turn affects percent reduction, under which banks offer deposits.
"An outflow of money from banks can start - especially speculative money. And then the situation could turn over, and people will start to get rid of deposits - to take their money and get rid of Belarusian rubles. Then the FX rate will rise", the expert added.
Regarding the possible level of inflation, Leonid Zlotnikov emphasizes that, according to the government plans, this figure will reach 22%.
"But it was a very interesting statement from the deputy minister of economy that this year's monthly salary will rise by 70% and the real by 5%. This means that inflation will be around 65-70% even according to expectations of the Ministry of Economy", the expert said.
Since the beginning of the year the inflation has amounted to 3.5%.