Belarusian Forecast of Economic Development is Heart Attack for Factory Directors
9 декабря 2009, 16:44
The Belarusian leader has approved economic development forecast for 2010 is growth 11-13%, but this task is impossible.
The forecast of Belarus’ social and economic development in 2010 approved by Alyaksandr Lukashenka means "heart attack for factories and plants’ directors, for the new Economy Minister," believes the well-known economist, the head of "Strategy" analytical centre Leanid Zaika. He explained the core of this program which is impossible to put into practice.
"Lukashenka has ordered to return to rapid growth of economy. Prakapovich and other officials have written what he wanted," Leanid Zaika says. "But these are just wishes, which cannot be performed, for instance, to increase agriculture output by 10-11%. They plan to increase export by 28%, but they have lost 40%. It means that by increasing by 28%, we would return to the level of three years ago. If industry output would be increased by 12%, while it has dropped by 5%, who would buy anything and where they would get money?"
The expert called forecasts of wage hike by 13-14% "absolutely crazy", while the inflation is 9-10%. Thus the nominal average monthly salaries in the national economy would be $500 by the end of the next year. The wishes for Belarusians to become richer are to remain just wishes, "if they would still have job by that time, as 4/5 of the automobile plant production is not needed by anyone now; 40% of Belarusian tractors are no longer required by anyone," Leanid Zaika said.
Economists note that everything will happen differently, not as it is planned, and certainly not as optimistically as in the forecast rubberstamped by Lukashenka.