Economist: Increasing wages can result in a new devaluation
26 апреля 2012, 16:49
Officials promise to state employees a serious increase in wages. According to independent economists, it can be expensive for the entire Belarusian economy.
On May 1 public sector wages will increase by 20%, and first-class tariff rate will increase by 5%. "It's very strange, because, according to latest official figures, in the first two months the year budget was executed with a deficit, that is, there is no money in the budget," economist Leonid Zlotnikov told in an interview with Belsat TV.
Meanwhile, according to previous forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, in the end of 2012 the average monthly salary will amount little more than 4 million rubles. These parameters are incorporated in the estimates of social policy, approved by the Ministry of Economy's Decree № 14 of February 15, 2012 "On the balance of account terms of socio-economic development of Belarus for 2012". According to the forecast, in 2012, the nominal wages will grow by 71,4-72% to 3,216-3,227 million rubles.
According to the expert it is "a risky situation". "This year, the government had enough money to pay off foreign debts. According to my calculations, about $3 billion should come from nowhere, so that we paid off the external debt. In this situation, the salary increase can not be achieved by any GDP growth, nor by the influx of foreign currency. Situation may be similar to the one that was last year - devaluation and inflation", Leonid Zlotnikov stressed.