"If we survive this year, the next one will be very difficult"
25 июля 2012, 01:44
"In Belarus there are no preconditions for the growth of salaries by 50% at once! In order to keep salaries at that level next year we need $13 billion, and in 2013 we have to pay 13 billion of debts" This statement was made by economist Leonid Zlotnikov while commenting on the words of the National Bank's Deputy Chairman Sergei Dubkov.
The National Bank's official said that "under the influence of global financial crisis manifesting in imbalances in the country's economic development (for example, emerged in 2011), huge unpredictable fluctuations in the mutual exchange rates are possible, which leads to decrease in solvency of borrowers".
UDF.BY correspondent learnt from Leonid Zlotnikov about the subject of such statements:
- I think, we are talking here about the following. The "solvent-diluents" case was investigated. If in the second half of this year the duty on "solvents-diluents" to be introduced, Belarusian budget will lose $1 billion (annual revenues are estimated at about $2 billion).
Fluctuation of incomes from oil, which is a very important source, and on the other hand, the drop in prices for petroleum and oil products in coming years.
Although the last EurAsEC loan's tranche has been promised, this issue is still unsolved.
Second thing - how Europe and U.S. relate to the IMF policy. It is very likely that our request for another loan won't be satisfied.
I've touched on the most obvious and not talking about more serious things manifesting in the next year. After all, once again the task is to bring the average salary at the end of this year to $500. Well, they'll bring wages up to $500. And how to keep it at that level next year? The main source of support - the growth of gross domestic product. GDP grew by 2.5%, hence wages should increase by 2.5%. Labor productivity at the macro level is 2.5%.
Most importantly, we don't have the preconditions for salaries growth by 50% at once! In order to keep salaries at this level next year, about 13 billion dollars are needed, and we have to give 13 billion back.
Everything will collapse!
This year we have $2 billion from oil sales, plus subsidies for Russian gas have increased by $2 billion. But only the loan paid outs estimated at the level of 10-12 billion dollars. And to return one loan - one need to get another somewhere else.
And how can't we believe in numbers: the 2013 is really going to be unhappy?
- If we survive this year, the next one will be very difficult. This year we must pay $2 billion, the next year - $16 billion.