On Monday in Belarusian online media appeared an information, the National Bank at a closed meeting considered the possibility of a new ruble's devaluation, which will be triggered by a sharp increase in Belarusians' incomes up to $500.
UDF.BY asked the former head of National Bank of Belarus Stanislav Bogdankevich to comment on the situation.
- I believe such statements are not based on the real situation. Trade surplus for the six months increased by one billion dollars, foreign exchange reserves increased slightly. The growth of ruble supply is absorbed by the mass increase in prices. I believe, in the coming months substantial devaluation won't happen. Dollar price will rise, but it will be rather creeping growth than sharp.
National Bank called "the leakage" of information from the meeting "gibberish". However, once the former head of the NBB Prokopovich also said "there won't be devaluation", however, the ruble has depreciated by almost three times. How serious are the risks of today?
- Ruble supply in six months has increased by more than 30%. Although the plans for this year provided the ruble supply growth of not more than 25% - we've already exceeded the annual target. This fact gives reason to doubt the ruble's stability.
But the main indicator is the solvent balance, positive balance of trade.
There are some risks associated with possible manipulations of Belarusian authorities with "diluents, solvents". If Russia would require to return to its budget two billion dollars, the problem could arise then. But Russia has always had geopolitical interests - the absorption of Belarus - above economic ones. So, I think, Belarusian authorities will get away with these frauds.
In general, how does the rise of average salary up to 500 dollars threaten all of us?
- This increase is purely nominal: we are paid salaries in rubles, prices - in rubles. You can set a hard dollar rate at around 8300, and double the price of housing services. Formally they can bring salaries up to $600, but the people will live only poorer.
Lukashenko makes such statements in a purely populist purposes: people will not live richer, if they formally bring the salary up to $500, and up to $600.