By winter 1,000,000 of unemployed may be on the streets in Belarus
11 августа 2011, 00:35
This will happen if the government do not urgently resolve the problem of fixing the single currency rate and do not provide a free access to the currency market for all the economy entities.
This opinion about his own publication, which was placed in the portal of business information BEL.BIZ , stated the chief director of Currency Regulation and Foreign Economic Activity magazine Vladimir Artyugin.
According to the expert, for the economy of Belarus, where much of the GDP is tied to the foreign trade, the main problem of all economic entities (both public and private) is the absence of real exchange rate.
"Therefore, expected $2 billion either for potassium salt, or 35% of Belaruskaliy stock can be seen as an endowment for the opening of the foreign exchange market. It is still possible to add here $ 300 million received from Azerbaijan", - writes Artyugin.
According to him, $ 2 billion is the work of Belaruskaliy for 8 months.
It is unlikely that Belarus will be ready this time not to get the foreign currency from the sales of potassium salt, therefore, most likely this is the veiled sell of 35% of stock, - concludes the expert. As a result, you can expect to receive the next tranche of $ 0.44 billion from EEC. Then, at the end of the year the rest of the "Beltransgaz" will be sold, and then, the new agreement with IMF will be signed. If it all goes well, then they will give the loan money back, and the stock of Belaruskaliy will remain in the state. If not, then it is anyway needed to sell it. No wonder, that Belaruskaliy and Beltransgas were deprived from the benefits of compulsory sale of the foreign currency earnings.
As Artyugin marks, to delay the liberalization of the foreign exchange market is dangerous, "since to resolve all the issues in a manual mode is difficult, and it also scares investors, and to do everything for a credit money is expensive."
"It is expected that by the fall, many enterprises can stop the work at all. And it is about 1,000,000 people involved it this sector. On the eve is winter, and to ignore the problems of so many people is hard", - wrote the expert.
Meanwhile, the analyst thinks if the exchange rate equalizes, the prices of some goods and services will rise (drugs, utilities, rent, customs duties), "but the government will become just easier because of this."
"Anyway the economy has to be reformed. Otherwise, after a year or two everything will be repeated", - sums up Artyugin