Expert: Only charwomen, state media journalists and the head of the National Bank trust in ruble today
Slightly more than two weeks Nadezhda Yermakova works as the chairman of the National Bank, but there was no single exchange rate yet and it is not visible in the near-term outlook as well. Moreover, for lack of the currency in the exchange offices and with higher prices for consumer goods the exchange rate of the dollar is constantly goes up in the "black market". On the popular virtual exchanger in Belarus for $1 dollar they give already Br 7500.
The reporter of news portal UDF.BY asked to comment on this situation the well-known Belarusian economist, the head of the Analytical Center "Strategy" Leonid Zaiko.
- In my opinion there is no systematic approach to regulate the market-funds. The statements on a single exchange rate have been coming since March. The rates have been already balanced in May. This situation I would call the "the silence of the lambs". The rigid control of the monetary policy is strengthen in the country. Plus, the indexation of officials' salaries, of pensions started, that is the money supply in rubles began to increase again. The strategic mistake was made: dollar was put into the parallel circulation. Every young graduated student, every young scientist-economist can prove outright, that you can not introduce the parallel money, when your own currency is in a difficult position. This is a mistake. It is not fixed. In addition, they increased the loans in the country by 30 percent. This is madness! What is happening now is the extreme incompetence. I have the impression that nobody in the government knows what the monetary theory is all about. The statements on the single rate have already started to cause suspicions. Today it is safe to say that we are dealing with a deadlock of the economic policy. Unfortunately, if all these go on, it will be the record inflation for the last 10 years.
- Then, can one forget about the single rate, or even more, about the rate of 5000 rubles, of which the President Alexander Lukashenko said?
- In the near future the government will wipe the tears, and the dollar can reach 8-9 thousand rubles. And practically, authorities have already done everything for this. There is no trust in ruble. Only charwomen, state media journalists and the head of the National Bank trust in it. Moreover, I think, they doubt it. The rest do not trust. And this is the worst.
- And, perhaps, the authorities again will find excuses for people... Why in our country nor the National Bank, nor the Government do not answer for the inflation, and everything is blamed on external factors: more expensive energy, etc.?
-This is just the common propaganda explanations. And this angers the most. The fact that the ruble depreciates is the result of the poor balance of trade. Well, in May it became positive. Then, what is the obstacle? It is needed to rigidly keep the money supply, and as I told before, they gave the credits by 30 percent more, increased wages, introduced the dollar... In the end, if you look at all these mistakes and arrangements made in connection with the growth of wages, pensions, etc., it will lead to the expectation that inflation will be greater that 100 percent. And then there is a reasonable question: why do people keep their money in banks if the deposits' interest rate is 28 percent, and inflation is 100 percent? Who in the National Bank will be responsible for such intricacies? In this situation, any sane person will pull out his money from the banks. And if that happens, the process of destruction of the entire banking system will begin. In any country it will collapse. What do the Prime Minister and the Head of the National Bank look at? What are they waiting for?
-At which amount today should be the deposit rate, so that people will relatively calmly keep their savings in banks?
-If today the inflation is set at 41 percent (although it should be more - up to 100 percent) , than the rate should be fixed at 50 percent. At least for 2-3 months. Then, no credit emissions. Which an insane will take a credit at 50 percent? What kind of a poor or impoverished man will build a house at such rates? Urgent tough measures are needed. The policy of special economic regulation is necessary. It is needed to introduce a temporary tight monetary and budgetary control. This is all very seriously. It is worse and more dangerous than the riots in London. If someone does not understand then I as the economist want to say this: one cannot drag out anymore.
-Can an external loan save the situation, for example, from Sberbank of Russia, which today may come to Belarus?
-I have the impression that everyone is now sitting with rubles and wait, in order "to cut" this moneys. Therefore, they can disperse in about a week. The question is not whether this money comes or not, but the question of trust in the Belarusian ruble and in the economic policy.