Expert: You can expect the further devaluation of national currency
16 августа 2011, 00:23
Administrative setting of the official rate of Belarusian ruble will not bring anything positive to the economy, whichever they would set it, either 6 or 7 thousand. Such opinion expressed to a correspondent of the news portal UDF.BY the former head of the National Bank Prof. Stanislav Bogdankevich.
It became known today that recently the private meeting with senior officials was held, where they shaped the financial policy until the end of 2011. Following the meeting, Alexander Lukashenko in a directive manner has identified the single rate: 6000 rubles per dollar.
"I believe that the Belarusian ruble exchange rate can not be set in the office. It is necessary to carry out the session and on its basis to determine the true market rate, which would be applied to citizens and business", says the former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Stanislav Bogdankevich.
In his opinion, the attempts to administer would be helpful if the state had large reserves, if there were extra money that could be spent on the maintenance of a certain rate. "But I believe, that also, even if there are reserves, one can not set the rate administratively, because the rate has to be balanced by export-import, in accordance with the current count ...", the expert said.
The economist found difficulty in replying the question: 6000 rubles per dollar - is it good or bad: "If we start from the moment when the problem occurred in the foreign exchange market, the 6000 was a lot, but today, when the appreciation of rate, rising prices and tariffs are highly expected, I'm afraid that 6000 will not be enough".
Among the priority tasks, which the authorities have to resolve, Stanislav Bogdankevich named "the credit crunch and limiting the growth of ruble money supply", because today the National Bank "provides the resources out of the air for commercial banks, and they loan to the economy and the harvesting compaign".
The interlocutor of the news portal UDF.BY explained that in order to stabilize the currency market it is necessary that the National Bank at the same time receive the interventions at a rate of about two billion dollars, otherwise the "black market" in Belarus will remain and the Belarusian ruble exchange rate will be at least 6500-7000 per dollar.
The expert said that given the fact that the printing press turns on all the time, "you can expect a further devaluation of the national currency." "Today - 5000, tomorrow - 6000, the day after - 8000 rubles per dollar... The problem must be solve wholly, but the authorities do not do so. It is necessary to conduct the session and to fix the rate there. When there is the real, market quotation, the demand for currency will be significantly reduced and the situation on the currency exchange market can be slightly adjusted," says the economist.
Certainly, says the former head of the National Bank, the fixation of market rates is unpopular, because the myth about the stable Belarus is collapsing. In the beginning of the year the rate was at the level of 3000, and now more than twice as high. "The authorities do not want to realize that it is time to use the market principle of setting a rate, but in order to do so, one must limit the ruble money supply, to stabilize prices in the consumer market, to reduce government spending and crediting of economy... The desire to increase GDP artificially must be limited somewhat for two years. Today we have obtained, that we create artificially 10 percent, while dept is growing by 40. This situation is abnormal: the more we produce, the poorer we become," stressed Stanislav Bogdankevich.
Let us remind, that in the beginning of June at the meeting on current economic issues the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has stated publicly that the rate of dollar at the end of the year will not be more than 5000 rubles.