Expert: If not to use a printing press, the dollar rate may be 7-8 thousand
6 октября 2011, 19:02
According to trade results at an extra session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange on October 6 the dollar rose by a record Br200 and amounted Br7810.
The euro reached Br10600, showing an increase of Br180. Russian ruble rose by Br7 and was set at the level of Br246.
We remind, that it is the second jump of the dollar rate in the history of trading at BCSE. On October 4 major foreign currencies have shown an increase: the dollar - by Br20, Euro - by Br100 and the Russian ruble - by Br7.
By the result of an extra session on October 5 dollar "lost" Br40, but it looks like it was only a running start for a new jump.
Representative of one of the banks said www.interfax.by, that "the fx currency market immediately reacted to the weakening of a market rate - people again ran in exchange offices to buy a currency after selling it during the last weeks". "So far there are no queues of those who wish to buy a currency, since banks have an opportunity of replenishment at the stock exchange, but an economic significance of foreign exchange operations is reduced, because "a bottom" of the rate is not clear again", says the source.
Official exchange rates set by the National Bank also have shown a growth. Thus, the dollar rose from Br5750 to Br5758, the euro rose from Br7652,68 to Br7676,57 and the Russian ruble from Br176,18 to Br177,12.
The National Bank for the first time since the start of the BCSE extra session has carried out an intervention, selling about $10 million, because the demand for U.S. dollars exceeded the supply by several times.
Before that, the National Bank for two weeks had bought at the stock exchange $103 million, which were sent to the foreign currency reserves.
The former head of the National Bank Stanislav Bogdankevich is not surprised by interventions at an extra session. According to him, "any central bank should remove roughness. One day to buy, the second day to sell in terms of what was previously purchased. Not being carried away, but trying to give the economy, business, citizens a more or less stable reference point".
According to Stanislav Bogdankevich, today the fair dollar exchange rate is about Br7000-8000, "may be a little more."
- In the future a lot depends on the monetary policy, which will be conducted by the National Bank, and of course, on the budgetary policy. Over the past three months, the debt of commercial banks to the National Bank has increased by not more than 1 trillion. That is, the National Bank turned on a printing press. If not to use a printing press, [the dollar rate] may be 7-8 thousand, and the rate can be stabilized, - the economist said in the interview to UDF.BY.
However, he expressed a concern that the promises not to use a printing press can be unrealized: "The economy will require additional cash investments. Agriculture, industry, and the need to prevent the fall of gross domestic product - all these requires money. And we've got huge debtors, a huge unsold product, where our own working capital is frozen. And it's all blocked the by the National Bank's lending".
In order to stabilize and keep the dollar rate, you need to avoid further lending, says Stanislav Bogdankevich. However, it is difficult to judge whether this will be done. According to the former head of the National Bank, Belarus needs to set the unified rate, to hold out with a floating exchange rate for several months, and "then to set a more or less tougher rate".