Expert on Lukashenko's fate: At best - Hague Tribunal
10 февраля 2012, 15:07
Touching care of Alexander Lukashenko about deposed Kyrgyz ruler Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was granted political asylum at first, and then issued a passport of Belarusian citizen, forces experts to pose the question: whether Belarusian president has a place where to run in case of repetition of "Bishkek events".
"Can the Belarusian leader count on the support of any of his colleagues, if we imagine that at some point the political situation in Belarus will mature for him not in the best way. Will he find refuge in Russia, in Europe or, for example, in any of the Latin American countries with which the official Minsk maintains a very warm relationship now?", asks the deputy director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusian Studies of the MSU Bogdan Bezpalko.
And he also answers his own question:
"I am deeply convinced that Lukashenko has nowhere "to run", and he himself will unlikely "run" somewhere. Now the situation in Belarus is quite complicated, but at the same time, the country was able to get out of the crisis, which was established at the time of elections".
According to him, "in the will to fight for his values and ideals, for the model of development which Belarusian president represents, partly he's like Qadhafi and I'm convinced that Lukashenko is able to go till the end".
Bogdan Bezpalko convinced that in Minsk they clearly understand: "Without the cooperation with the Russian elite, which supports exactly Lukashenko, Belarus will not survive".
"Right now, the political situation in Belarus partly reminds that of Russia, in a sense that many have some grudge against the state power, but they realize that forces, which represent alternative paths of development, will only lead to destruction of the economy and the state. In this situation, Lukashenko is able to stay in power several more years. The main difficulty is the question of his successor and willingness of certain political circles to support him, but about this Lukashenko has to worry himself", the expert said in an interview to Rosbalt.
On the other hand, if the political situation in Belarus will be destabilized by external or internal factors, there is a possibility in which the head of state can repeat the sad fate of some leaders. At best - the Hague Tribunal, at worst - death by the hands of "revolted people", executed the tyrant "under the influence of their hatred".