Top 5 big statements and promises of the last year
We have prepared the selection of big statements, which were heard from the lips of various public figures in our country last year, and compared these predictions and promises with what happened in reality.
1) It was:
In March 2011 the head of the National Bank of Belarus Piotr Prokopovich has promised, the authorities would not allow devaluation:
"There won't be any one-off devaluation in Belarus. Our experience suggests, the sharp devaluation is a bad decision for Belarusians".
The Head of the National Bank said, the one-off devaluation was referring to the one-time increase in foreign currency exchange rate, even at 5%.
Facts: On May 23, 2011 National Bank of Belarus devalued the national currency by more than 56%, and on October 20, 2011 the Belarusian ruble was devalued again by more than 50% - this time on the trading results at the single session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange.
2) It was:
"We have defined, the rate of 5 thousand (Belarusian rubles per dollar) is mathematically verified and justified economically. I believe that within a week and a half, when all the speculative mood will come off a number of business entities, the rate will aim down", the deputy chairman of the National Bank Taras Nadolny told reporters on September 9, 2011.
The official also said that "our limiting maximum rate at which the intervention to be carried out, will not differ significantly from today's official rate". On September 9, when all the statements were made, the rate of the Belarusian National Bank amounted to 5232 rubles per dollar.
Facts: After October 20, 2011 the Belarusian ruble exchange rate has changed from 5712 to 8680 rubles per one dollar (exchange rates of the National Bank on 20 and 21 October respectively).
3) It was:
On June 3 at the meeting of the National Council of Labour and Social Affairs, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Rumas said that "just in 10-14 days, the situation at the currency market will be resolved". This big statement then was quoted by many.
Facts: Currency appeared as commercially available in the exchange offices of most banks in Belarus on the morning of Thursday, September 15. Up to this point for almost half a year Belarusians had to be on duty round the clock under the branches of banks or to use services of the black market. We remind, that following the first BCSE additional session banks set rates in the range of 8.5-9 thousand Belarusian rubles per dollar.
4) It was:
On October 20 Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Nadezhda Ermakova said, the ruble strengthened against the major foreign currencies. In particular, she said, on January 1, 2012 the Belarusian ruble rate against the U.S. dollar could reach 7-8 thousand BYR. The reason for the ruble appreciation, according to the head of National Bank, is the expectation of growth in the supply of foreign currencies on a single trading session of the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange. To stabilize the situation, according to Nadezhda Ermakova, will also help the external borrowings and incomes from privatization.
We note, at that time few believed in this optimistic scenario.
Facts: In early January, the dollar costed 8350 rubles. Later, however, the ruble against the dollar has appreciated and now amounts to about 8050-8100 per 1 dollar in average. According to some experts, in particular, to the analyst at Forex Club of Belarus Valery Polhovsky, the dollar could fall below the mark of 8000 rubles, but the National Bank is buying currency surpluses during the auctions. This fact is in a straight line to the newspaper "Respublika" the head of the National Bank Nadezhda Ermakova has confirmed:
"To prevent the sharp appreciation of the ruble, the National Bank was even forced to buy up the excess of currency. On October 21 last year, we've already purchased on the stock market about $1.2 billion".
5) It was:
As on October 20, 2011, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Sergey Dubkov said, in Belarus a steady growth of foreign currency deposits is registered.
"We passed the peak values when the population was withdrawing deposits, now there is a steady increase", said Sergey Dubkov. "By year end, I think, we will reach the figures comparable to the beginning of the year".
Facts: According to the data of National Bank of Belarus on January 1, 2011 deposits in foreign currency amounted to 4 382.1 million, and on January 1, 2012 to 4 211.8 million. Thus, in 2011 the foreign currency deposits declined, despite the crisis, only by 170.3 million U.S. dollars, or by 3.9 percent. And if you get the latest statistics of the National Bank, then it follows that deposits in foreign currency at the beginning of April 2012 have increased significantly and amounted to the equivalent of 4.9 billion dollars, surpassing the pre-crisis levels in April 2011 (4.7 billion dollars).
It becomes obvious, the predictions of experts can come true with startling accuracy, and do not come true at all. And it's not surprising - on the final outcome of any circumstances (whether inflation or the demand for real estate) a huge number of different factors affects, and to foresee all of them is sometimes impossible. Therefore, forecasters are often wrong, regardless of what they predicted - fate, weather or exchange rates.