"Society has finally realized how Lukashenko bought a new term"
17 октября 2011, 18:56
After setting the unified exchange rate many experts predict a sharp drop in living standards. How will Belarusians react to rising prices, new figures in payment order and to reduction of real wages, "Salidarnast" asked politicians.
Alyaksandr Klaskouski: "The situation, where all safety valves of society are tightly plugged, is fraught with explosion".
- Economically active part of society requires intelligibility from the government: any, but a single rate, signs of stability, - the political analyst Alyaksandr Klaskouski comments on the situation. - This is madness, the absence of rules of the game in the economy first of all puts business of its stride. Secondly, it seems, even pensioners realized that a freebie is over.
The expert believes that drop in living standards will continue.
- An adaptation mechanism at the level of genetic memory have started under the slogan - "how to survive the hard times". For the senior generation this is kind of return to the hard nineties. Many still remember how to survive for $30, - says the interlocutor of "Salidarnast". - For many this is not the limit: lived even worse.
Alyaksandr Klaskouski believes that there is a process of belt-tightening, the intimidation of society by security forces, the marginalization and dispersal of the opposition.
- The mechanism of fear has been started up. This is the repression after the Square on December 19, this is also the crackdown of the "revolution of applause" in the summer, these are the new draconian laws - says the analyst. - The working potential of the opposition is very low. For all dissenters now is the most advantageous time: there are a lot of reasons for criticism, but nobody is heard. One may "throw stones" at Viktar Ivashkevich and the People's Assembly, but at least he's doing something. The opposition has been marginalized, cut off from the people and intimidated. Nobody wants to prison for two years for distributing leaflets.
According to the expert, the pressure in the social boiler will continue to increase.
- Those "hawks" in the government, who rushed the draconian laws, are rubbing their hands - now there is an opportunity for any "clean-up", the suppression of any dissent and liberalism. But this is an illusion. When the pressure begins to shift into a critical phase, as it was in North Africa where there was no opposition, an explosion happens, - Alyaksandr Klaskouski thinks. - Turning of the screw, clean-ups and forcing an atmosphere of fear can lead to the Romanian version of events. This may be an uncontrolled explosion or a nomenclature revolution. Those who trim the sails to the wind will realize, that to change the system with the top is easier than to clean up the mess of the situation when the country will go to pot. External players can also join. First of all Russia.
The political scientist believes that the absence of political life in the country prevents the public to let off some steam.
- It is fraught with an explosion primarily. Example is Western Europe. There is no revolution, because when the people are not satisfied they elect a new government. The situation, where all safety valves of society are tightly plugged, is fraught with explosion, - the expert concluded.
Yury Chavusau: "The unified rate is the acceptance of the authorities' inability to fulfill its part of the social contract in exchange for freedom".
- I'm not sure that the single rate will become the circumstance, which will affect the political orientation of society. Belarusians have chosen a strategy of adaptation to existing difficulties. Single rate is just a recognition and correction of mistakes committed by the government. For the majority of people in the country it is something distant, not connected with real life. Because long ago in the minds of people the rate is single and market, and all the castles in the air, which the government draws, don't work anymore, - the political analyst Yury Chavusau thinks. - And the principle "to find the guilty and to poke a finger" doesn't work too.
According to the interlocutor, in this situation the guilty is the one who took responsibility for total control over society.
- On the one hand, you can amuse oneself with legitimate possibilities of control and lawlessness, but eventually you will have to answer for everything: for the dollar, for a poor harvest, for problems in education. This is a feature of authoritarian rule, - says the expert. - The fruits of this rule is a catastrophic drop in rankings. Attempts to solve this problem economically have been unsuccessful. No one will love the authorities more, because everyone finally realized: Lukashenko has bought a new term for the money, withdrawn from the population through inflation.
According to the analyst, the crisis is illustrated by reduced availability of essential supplies. First of all food.
- People are forced to choose between freedom and daily bread. The faith in the ability of government to provide basic social and economic needs of society is undermined, - thinks Chavusau. - Aleksandr Lukashenka again could turn on his famous charisma and on a personal level appear as the defender of disadvantaged. But now it is hard to do with the belt "Hermes" and with the Ipad in the hands of his son. People see it and notice.
The expert believes, the habit to live in the era of late dictatorship is coming, the consequences of which will be an immigration and transformation of the country into a settling tank of social technologies.
- The unified rate is the acceptance of the authorities' inability to fulfill its part of the social contract in exchange for freedom. It turned out, there is no freedom, nor the bread promised for it, - summed up the expert.