Sociologists predict Lukashenko problems with the electorate
4 июля 2012, 15:20
Belarusians are disappointed in Lukashenko. After a small rise his rating again rolled down the slope.
This data was obtained by registered in Vilnius the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (IISEPS) during the national survey of public opinion conducted in June. (1498 people surveyed, sampling error does not exceed 3%).
If in September 2011 from 20.5% his electoral rating rose to 24.9% in December and 34.5% in March, then today it again declined to 29.7%, IISEPS informs.
Moreover, if in March the number of people who trust the president exceeded the number of who don't (47.9% vs. 42%), then today this ratio is again changed in favor of not trusting (38.5% vs. 51.9%).
As noted in the research, Belarusians are increasingly concerned about the unfair and even illegal relationship with the authorities.
Illustrative in this respect is their attitude to the execution of convicted on charges of terrorist attacks in the Minsk metro Dmitry Konovalov and Vladislav Kovalev. Only 37.8% of respondents agreed with the court and president's decisions, while 34.4% says both should be pardoned, another 7% - that Konovalov should to be shot, and Kovalev - to be pardoned (over 20% were undecided).
Besides, "the sense of the authorities' injustice" not only affects the different situations of everyday life for millions of people, but the very structure of Belarusian society.
Thus, in August 2006, 48.6% of respondents believed that President Alexander Lukashenko, primarily relied on military, police, KGB, 37% - on the president's "vertical", 20.5% - on public officials, but today this figures are, respectively, 56.5%, 45.4% and 33.2%.
At the same time, the number of those who believe, he primarily relies on the ordinary people and village inhabitants, for six years decreased from 34.2% and 30% to 18.1% and 24%. Not surprisingly, that while defining one's relations with the government, the majority of respondents (63.3%) said "I live, relying only on myself and avoiding contact with the state power" (only 7.6% said "coming into contact with the authorities I make of it what I need").
Therefore, the assessment of the state of affairs in our country in total, which has become within six months more positive (number of those believed it develops in the wrong direction, fell from 68.5% in September to 52.5% in March), again gets the negative dynamics - today 54.3% think so.
"The down trend" attitude to power inevitably raises expectations for change. Thus, despite the relative economic stability, the number of people who believe that Belarus needs changes, is now higher than during the peak of crisis last year: in May 2011 61.1% thought so, but today - 77.3%.
However, IISEPS states "expectations for change, as has been observed many times, does not automatically lead to an increase in protest potential in Belarusian society".
For example, if in December people who saw themselves in opposition to the current government was 22.6%, but today - 19.2%, and electoral ratings of opposition leaders remain low: in March for alternative favorites of recent presidential elections Vladimir Neklyayev and Andrei Sannikov gained 6.8% and 6.1 %, now it's 6.1% and 5.1% respectively.
In general, Belarusians have negative attitude to the idea of creation the government in exile, which in recent months has been actively discussed by the opposition-minded part of society: only 9.4% agreed to it, 41.8% believe we should fight for power in Belarus, but not to create government abroad, 28.3% - the current Belarusian authorities are lawful and legitimate, any governments in exile represent nobody, and 5.2% - the Belarusian government in exile already exists - it is the BNR Rada.