Expert: Inflation to Reach 40-50% in Belarus in 2012

Former Chairman of National Bank of Belarus Stanislav Bogdankevich considers that the refinancing rate may be lowered in 2012, "if tight monetary policy is really implemented".

According to him, if inflation doesn’t exceed 30% in the first quarter, the rate will be lower. "But I fear that inflation will be not less than 40-50% this year. This is at best", he said.

"Today, the refinancing rate is real at the moment. It was understated, and a population with ruble deposits incurred losses. You know, a lot will depend on whether the government will actually carry out hard-balanced monetary policy," Stanislav Bogdankevich said in an interview with Euramost.org.

"There is some sort of intent at the moment. I say – a lot will be decided upon based on the work in the first quarter. It’s evident that the government is trying to do something. But when the spring planting season begins, when fertilizers are needed, when problems with loss-making enterprises appear, then the government may press on the National Bank. Today it is easy to do various optimistic statements - the year has just begun. But now we are reaping the fruits of hyperinflation and drop of fx rate. And then our firmness will be tested. Let's see - whether doings and sayings will differ," said the former head of the National Bank.

However, he believes that not all government officials "agree that inflation should be priority, so they’ve reintroduced the indicators: GDP, rise of commodity product". "The main disease of the economy is imbalances - the fact that our export is less than import, that wages and incomes are growing faster than productivity, that the debts of the real economy are also growing much faster than the production in this economy," said Stanislav Bogdankevich.

Chairman of the National Bank Nadezhda Ermakova hopes that the foreign currency crisis that’s rocked Belarus in 2011, will not happen again. "The most unpleasant has already gone, and hopefully this will not happen again," she said, noting that the lessons have been learned this year and the top decisions have been taken to prevent similar events in the future.