Social poll: Lukashenko is guilty - 45,3 percents, his rating - 31,4 percents

The survey "Socio-political situation in the Republic of Belarus in the context of the coming presidential elections on the 19th December 2010" was made in Belarus under the sponsorship of international centre of social and marketing surveys SOCIU. Complex social survey was conducted from the 11th till the 22nd of October 2010.

Selection of the survey made up 1553 responded in all settlements of the republic, including Minsk. A main method of the research was questionnaire poll. Informational agency REGNUM News got the results of the poll and they are shown below:

1. How do you estimate the relationship between Belarus and Russia now?

a) allied - 37,7%

b) conflict - 41,1%

c) neutral - 12,5%

d) it is hard to answer - 8,7%

1а) If the relationship is consider to be conflict, so who is responsible for making the conflict?

a) the President of the Republic of Belarus - 45,3%

b) Russian authorities - 33,1%

c) USA - 7,4%

d) Western Europe - 4,0%

e) it is hard to answer - 10,2%.

2. Whose interests are being protected by Alexander Lukashenko in the last conflict with Russia?

a) interest of the state and the folk - 21,6%

b) his own interests - 55,5%

c) interests of opponents of Belarusian-Russian integration - 14,3%

d) it is hard to answer - 8,6%

3. Who are you going to give your vote at the coming election to (eight candidates were put in the list)?

a) Alexander Lukashenko - 31,4%

b) Vladimir Neklyaev - 11,2%

c) Andrey Sannikov - 9,8%

d) Yaroslav Romanchuk - 6,0%

e) Grigory Kostusev - 3,5%

f) Nikolay Statkevich - 3,1%

j) Ales Michalevich - 2,8%

h) Viktor Tereshenko - 2,5%

i) it is hard to answer - 29,7%

4. Financial situation of you and your family for the previous year:

a) got worse - 27,6%

b) got better - 41,5%

c) stays the same - 22,0%

d) it is hard to answer - 8,9%

5. What do you stay for:

a) for integration with Russia - 43,8%

b) for entering EU and NATO - 17,5%

c) for not entering any blocks - 20,8%

г) it is hard to answer - 17,9%

6. What kind of integration with Russia responds your views?

a) unique state - 20,7%

b) unity of independent states as EU - 45,5%

c) equal relationship as with other countries - 20,2%

d) I am against any form of integration with Russia - 7,7%

e) it is hard to answer - 5,9%

7. What is your opinion about activation of the relationship between Alexander Lukashenka and Viktor Yushenko, Kurmanbek Bakiev, Mikhail Saakashvili?

a) positive - 23,1%

b) negative - 51,8%

c) it is hard to answer - 25,1%

8. What is your opinion about real and not declarative existence and functioning of the Federal state of Russia and Belarus?

a) existence and functioning of the Federal state is vitally important for Russia and Belarus - 65,3%

b) existence and functioning of the Federal state is old prejudices - 22,6%

c) it is hard to answer - 12,1%

The author of dimensioned social researches in the Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan of the last years candidate of social science Artem Gevorkyan commented the results of the poll at the instance of IA REGNUM News:

- Social research, which was held in October 2010 in the Republic of Belarus, shows difficult and quite contradictive situation with the political, social and economical preferences of the Belarusian electorate before elections of the president of the Republic of Belarus on the 19th of December 2010...

We face real split in the society, when the number of people who want to vote pro the current president and contro became equal. The situation, where almost one-third of the population did not make any decision 2 month before elections, is threatened for follower of Alexander Lukashenko...

The situation seems to be, when A. Lukasheko, which escalated the relationship with Russia, more over promoted practical activities against state interests of Russia and Belarus, is shown as the lesser evil.

Economical situation in the country is one more problem. Despite Belarusian official propaganda about achieved successes, Belarus is still surviving on the subventions of Russia in amount of 2-3 billion USD a year. It is not so complicated for Russia to support Belarusian economy (3,5% of Russian). The question about appropriateness of the help arises, when Russia faces hysterical, aggressive knocks in response to minimal demands.

But the problem is closed connected with the social sphere. The level of respondents, which consider their financial situation to get worse, has never been so high (41,5%). Inflation in the country maxes out. Printing press works without stopping. It seems that everything is being done only to report on the 6-7th of December at the Belarusian Folks Assembly about achievement of an average salary in amount of 500 dollars. Again the question arise – what is going to be with economy next? The most part of electorate wasn’t convinced that Venezuelan projects are absolutely useful. And taking into consideration the possibility of Russia in Venezuela, the Ukraine and Baltic region it will hardly happened.

The electorate perceived quite negative sharp turn of the Belarusian president towards convergence with Western and the related problems. The perception of refuse to recognize Abkhasia and North Ossetia has being escalated in connection with this fact, friendship with war criminal M. Saakashvili, common visions with plain russophobe V. Yushenko, finally, stories with K. Bakiev and B. Berezovky.

As the result, December 2010 will be substantial for the country, folk and supreme authority. We have never had so difficult situation on the national and international level.