Updated at 17:53,27-03-2024

Analysts predict that new Polish government will be more supportive of Belarus’ civil society

By Syarhey Karalevich, BelaPAN

Political analysts Ales Lahvinets and Yury Shawtsow predicted that Poland’s new government would be more supportive of Belarus’ civil society and critical of its government.

Exit polls suggest that Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party (PiS) won 37.7 percent of the vote in Poland’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, securing enough seats in the Sejm (lower parliamentary house) to govern alone. The ruling Civic Platform came second with 23.6 percent.

Mr. Lahvinets noted that Belarus` civil society had the previous PiS government to credit for the establishment of Warsaw-based television channel Belsat TV and the launch of the Kastus Kalinowski educational assistance program for victims of politically motivated persecution in Belarus. “Poland is likely to continue supporting Belarus in this way,” Mr. Lahvinets said. “The party is more ideologically inclined to pursue the so-called Jagiellonian policy. It is very suspicious of Russia and interested in the independence of Belarus and Ukraine.”

Poland’s political forces all agree that Belarus should be a democratic and independent country and keep itself open to the West, Mr. Lahvinets said.

Mr. Shawtsow predicted that the new Polish government would be trying to bring Belarus and Russia as far apart as possible. He noted that Poland’s recently elected President Andrzej Duda was also a member of the Law and Justice party. “The Polish people are strongly behind its agenda,” Mr. Shawtsow commented. “Poland is preparing for a conflict with Russia. How will this influence Belarus? I think that we Poland`s policy regarding Belarus will become more active.”