Expert: The rate can be Br6000 and Br8000. It will be a political decision
29 сентября 2011, 18:59
Belarusian authorities are able to set a single exchange rate against the dollar at the level of Br6 000, and Br8 000. This opinion in his publication on the portal BEL.BIZ expressed Vladimir Artyugin the chief editor of "Currency Regulation and Foreign Trade".
According to the analyst, this will depend on whose shoulders the state wants to put possible risks and losses.
- The rate at Br6000 against the U.S. dollar is possible. The losses will amount to about $1.5 billion, plus $0.4-0.5 billion a month. Out of $4.6 billion of gold reserves it will remain less than $3 billion by December; as from this figure the crisis has started in March. As a result, the hands of country's leadership will be tied to maneuver, loans will be urgently needed. Also, they will have to urgently sell the state assets, and this is a loss of money or new concessions.
We've already have the rate at Br8000 per U.S. dollar. The losses will amount to $0.2 billion, plus $0.3-0.4 billion a month. Until the end of the year we can survive with the current gold reserves, so there is no need to rush with new loans, but to try to bargain for the best conditions.
Choosing the rate is a political decision. At the level of Br8000 per U.S. dollar the losses are less, sales of the state property are less too, but the consequences for the population are worse. At Br6000 per U.S. dollar - more losses and more sales of state property, but this is a popular solution for the population. Time will show what the authorities will choose, - wrote Vladimir Artyugin.