To preserve their seats Myasnikovich and Rumas decided to continue ruining Belarusian economy
On Wednesday, addressing the House of Representatives, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Rumas said that in 2012 Belarus' GDP growth will amount to 5-5.5%.
Thus, the government agreed with the president Aleksandr Lukashenka's demand on economic growth forecasts. Independent experts predict Belarusians a fall in wages and 200% inflation.
"Subject to the instructions of the president, the main macroeconomic indicators for 2012 were defined. GDP growth is projected at 105-105,5%. Economic growth will be based on internal and emission sources", Sergei Rumas said, addressing deputies of the Belarusian parliament, interfax.by news portal informs.
According to the Deputy Prime Minister, the growth of an added value in industry will be based on increasing the volume of industrial production by 5,5-5,6%, and at the same time on reducing the material intensity of industrial production by 2-3%.
According to the forecast project, the ratio of foreign trade surplus to GDP should amount to 2,3-2,7%. The foreign trade balance in 2012 should have a surplus and amount to $ 1.3-1.5 billion.
Thus can be stated, that "marketers Myasnikovich and Rumas" have lost their confrontation with Lukashenka's adviser on economic affairs Sergei Tkachev. Due to his advise Lukashenka on November 22 meeting has demanded the government to ensure the GDP growth in 2012 at 5.5%.
"5-5.5% - you are to follow this. The prime minister knows my demands. So, go and make calculations. For those who disagree or cannot do this, we will find another job. But after I sign these documents, everybody must start running about the country and keep saying that they are realistic, they are good, we should go ahead and mobilize ourselves. There must be no idle talk with the media. God forbid that the contrary is reported to me", Lukashenka said.
Meanwhile, according to the government scenario, the economic growth in Belarus had to amount 1.5%. According to calculations of the Council of Ministers a significant increase in GDP can only be achieved by increasing the emission sources. If in order to achieve 1.5% of growth it was required to seek a loan in the amount of Br12 trillion, the GDP growth at 5.2%, according to expert evaluation, would be possible in 2012 only in case of doubling the called amount. Taking this into account, there is a high probability of repeating the events of 2011.
By the way, at the end of this year the government expects GDP growth also somewhere at a level of 5% . To achieve such a growth, the government will direct into the economy more than 22 trillion rubles in the form of loans this year.
But what are the effects of this policy?
This year Belarus has become a world leader in a level of devaluation and inflation, which has already exceeded 100%. In case of execution of projected GDP growth of 5.5%, the same inflation and falling in living standards await Belarusians in 2012.
By the way, the IMF expects the slowdown in economic growth in Belarus in 2012 up to 1.4%, and in case of the tight macroeconomic policy, in the next year GDP should grow even less - by 0.5%.
According to the forecast of the Economic Development Ministry of Russia, in 2012 GDP in Belarus, influenced by reduction in domestic demand, not only won't increase in comparison with 2011, but even decline by 1-4%.
As we can see, between macroeconomic stabilization and preservation of the ministerial seats, the officials have preferred the latter.