The official rate of the Belarusian rouble fixed today surprised both experts and consumers. The sharp rise of U.S. dollar, with its almost everyday fall last week, took place, although only by eight roubles.
According to the head of Mises Centre Yaraslau Ramanchuk, eight roubles is "not a dramatic increase". "Today's rate does not reflect the real situation in the Belarusian economy", the expert said to the news portal www.UDF.BY.
The economist believes that "the devaluation of the Belarusian rouble is inevitable, but it will be held smoothly, without abrupt jumps". Mr. Ramanchuk believes that today everything relies on foreign loans. Great expectations of the Belarusian government for the Chinese capital, which supposedly should come to Belarus, are unlikely to be met in full.
The former chairman of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich is also sure that "devaluation will take place" and will be smooth. In a talk with a reporter of the news portal www.UDF.BY he stressed that "if normal market reforms are held, the official dollar exchange rate should be 3,5-4 thousand roubles".
The expert believes that "if Belarus does not get 3 billion dollars from privatisation", "it will be very difficult" to close gaps. In his view, the main problem of the Belarusian economy is an unbalanced trade balance. He thinks that the situation when Belarus exports less goods and services than it imports, could not last long.
"As long as there are reserves, we can control the situation. But when there will be no reserves..?" asks Bahdankevich.
The National Bank has established the following rates for major currencies today:
Euro – 3,787.64 (- 27.51) U.S. dollar – 3,013 (8.0) Russian ruble – 97.56 (- 0.02).