Expert: Replacing Myasnikovich is a matter of time. And no one will regret
Today's angry speech of the Head of State addressed to the chairman of the Council of Ministers shows that the prime minister's career of Mikhail Myasnikovich will be given up soon. The Belarusian economist Leonid Zaika, head of the Analytical Center Strategy told about it to UDF.BY website.
- What is the reason for such a violent president's criticism? Can we say, this is Aleksandr Lukashenka's response to the actions of Mikhail Myasnikovich, who attempted to move the center of decision-making from the presidential administration to the government?
- You imagine the situation too seriously. It is an illusion that Myasnikovich as a person who is by 150% depend on Lukashenko in everything, in fate, children and other things, has suddenly moved the center of decision-making from the presidential administration to the government...
- But, at least, it felt that the government had worked quite independently this year.
- Here we should say, that was a time when the president didn't interfere with the government, and he did it right on the merits. First of all, he is tired of all the previous years, and secondly he thought: let the government work and not just sit agape. And then, unfortunately to him, the fears concerning the Cabinet Council confirmed. The government was not effective. Besides, Myasnikovich has held the state machinery posts for a long time - from the Minister of Public Utilities to Deputy Prime Minister, Head of the Presidential Administration... The post of a prime minister needs a very independent person. But Myasnikovich as a bureaucrat evaded making the most important decisions, and therefore the rate has dropped, that's why occurred the situation of such dissonance in monetary and macroeconomic policy. Another, the non-economic factor is also important.
-What do you mean?
- Sociological polls show that people put Lukashenka in the first place among those responsible for the crisis - 60%, and only 41% blame the government. These figures can not fail to irritate the president. So he understands that if the rating has fallen, then should be the guilty ones. And they really are.
- Knowing the harsh temper of the president, should we expect radical personnel decisions?
- I have already said in May, that we should dismiss the government, because it was totally ineffective. It makes no sense to give advises to this government. I think, the removal of Myasnikovich is a matter of time.
- In your opinion, will it be the resignation of Prime Minister or the whole government?
- I think, Lukashenka will remove Myasnikovich and put some young people in motion, not reforming the government. I think, the Council of Ministers have quite positive persons, such as Minister of Economics Snopkov, Vice-Premier Rumas ... I don't touch the agricultural unit, they don't mean anything there, since Lukashenko knows better than anyone, who is the best agrarian in Belarus. Therefore, only the Prime Minister will be replaced. And no one will regret at it.
- Can you guess, who will be the second place official in the state instead Myasnikovich?
- Rumas can be the Prime Minister. He is the most professional of all the officials. At least, when Lukashenko held some meetings with his assets, he relied mostly on Rumas.
- So Myasnikovich paid only for the fact that he was trying to implement market reforms?
- It's not about the market. And it's not, as the president said, that someone was carried away by the market. This argument is for an external customer. In fact, the president realized he was mistaken, Myasnikovich wasn't a strong prime minister.
- Whether the change of Prime Minister will lead to another crisis in Belarus?
- No, today we have enough... We lowered the standard of living 3 times! Can you imagine what is the situation, if for 17 years of our economic miracle, Belarusians' salary is 4 times lower than in Russia? 4 times - 25% of the Russian level! All the crises that could happen in Belarus, occurred in one year, in 2011.